Macro-Economic Factors in Credit Risk Calculations: Including Time-Varying Covariates in Mixture Cure Models

The prediction of the time of default in a credit risk setting via survival analysis needs to take a high censoring rate into account. This rate is because default does not occur for the majority of debtors. Mixture cure models allow the part of the loan population that is unsusceptible to default to be modeled, distinct from time of default for the susceptible population. In this article, we extend the mixture cure model to include time-varying covariates. We illustrate the method via simulations and by incorporating macro-economic factors as predictors for an actual bank dataset.     

A Factor-Adjusted Multiple Testing Procedure With Application to Mutual Fund Selection

In this article, we propose a factor-adjusted multiple testing (FAT) procedure based on factor-adjusted p-values in a linear factor model involving some observable and unobservable factors, for the purpose of selecting skilled funds in empirical finance. The factor-adjusted p-values were obtained after extracting the latent common factors by the principal component method. Under some mild conditions, the false discovery proportion can be consistently estimated even if the idiosyncratic errors are allowed to be weakly correlated across units. Furthermore, by appropriately setting a sequence of threshold values approaching zero, the proposed FAT procedure enjoys model selection consistency. Extensive simulation studies and a real data analysis for selecting skilled funds in the U.S. financial market are presented to illustrate the practical utility of the proposed method. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

太极拳与瑜伽术的传统意蕴及其文化学阐释

中、印传统体育文化蕴含了东方文明对于处世之道和养身模式的价值追求，作为东方体育文化典型代表的太极拳与瑜伽术，既是修炼身心、运动健身的重要项目，也是人们了解东方体育文化的重要媒介。跨文化比较分析表明，太极拳和瑜伽术在注重身形技法与艺术审美的结合、吐纳导引与意念游动的耦合、修身养性与天人意境的融合等方面具有共性，也有差异，体现出中、印在传统体育文化方面的异同。太极拳和瑜伽术的传承应该做到与时俱进、创新发展，其目标既不是传统竞技搏击术，也不是简单修炼养身术，而是融道德修养与身心修炼为一体的综合性运动项目。     

Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non-OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis

This study presents probabilistic analysis of dam accidents worldwide in the period 1911–2016. The accidents are classified by the dam purpose and by the country cluster, where they occurred, distinguishing between the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and nonmember countries (non-OECD without China). A Bayesian hierarchical approach is used to model distributions of frequency and severity for accidents. This approach treats accident data as a multilevel system with subsets sharing specific characteristics. To model accident probabilities for a particular dam characteristic, this approach samples data from the entire data set, borrowing the strength across data set and enabling to model distributions even for subsets with scarce data. The modelled frequencies and severities are combined in frequency-consequence curves, showing that accidents for all dam purposes are more frequent in non-OECD (without China) and their maximum consequences are larger than in OECD countries. Multipurpose dams also have higher frequencies and maximum consequences than single-purpose dams. In addition, the developed methodology explicitly models time dependence to identify trends in accident frequencies over the analyzed period. Downward trends are found for almost all dam purposes confirming that technological development and implementation of safety measures are likely to have a positive impact on dam safety. The results of the analysis provide insights for dam risk management and decision-making processes by identifying key risk factors related to country groups and dam purposes as well as changes over time.     

Defending the Family,Defending the Faith: An Analysis of The Family: A Proclamation to the World,Religious Identity,and the Politics of Same-Sex Marriage in a Mormon Community

In this article, we apply Peter Berger's theory of religion as a social construct to learn how The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (the Mormon Church) advances a heteronormative view of family relationships in the United States using a document titled The Family: A Proclamation to the World. Furthermore, applying cultural studies theory, we examine how believing Mormons negotiate the tension that arises when their secular values compete with those expressed by Church leaders. We argue that, although the Proclamation addresses a number of issues, the Church offers a closed text that emphasizes war narratives in which same-sex marriage is portrayed as a threat to LDS identity and the heteronormative family. This closed text is further legitimized by emphasis on the authority of Church leaders as oracles of God. The study participants largely accept the dominant narrative, and those who reject it, do so with some trepidation.     

Predicting Condom Use Outcomes via the Information Motivation Behavioral Skills Model: An Analysis of Young Black Men

Objectives: This study examines the relationships between information motivation behavioral skills model constructs and their associations with consistent condom use and condom use problems among young Black men. Methods: The authors use baseline data collected from 702 participants in a randomized controlled trial. Analyses involved path modeling and bootstrapped standard errors to estimate associations. Results: Motivation had the largest association with consistent condom use, whereas condom application skills had the largest association with condom use problems. Conclusion: Motivation is the most important predictor of consistent condom use, whereas condom application skills are the most important predictor of condom use problems.     

Economic statistical design of the T2 control chart under the Weibull shock model with multiple assignable causes

A proper monitoring of stochastic systems is the control charts of statistical process control and drift in characteristics of output may be due to one or several assignable causes. Although much research has been done on the design of control charts, the economic statistical design of the T2 control chart under the Weibull shock model with multiple assignable causes has not yet been addressed. Therefore, we tried to deal with it in this paper and thus we developed a cost model based on the variable sampling interval. We also give an example to support the practical use of T2 chart under the Weibull shock model with multiple assignable causes. Based on the optimization of the average cost per unit of time and taking into account the different combination values of Weibull distribution parameters, optimal values of design parameters were derived and calculated. Then, the cost models under the influence of single assignable cause and multiple assignable causes under the same cost and time parameters were compared. Also, a sensitivity analysis was conducted in which the variability of loss cost and design parameters due to change of cost and time and Weibull distribution parameters were evaluated.     

A seasonal mixed-POT model to estimate high flood quantiles from different event types and seasons

Flood events can be caused by several different meteorological circumstances. For example, heavy rain events often lead to short flood events with high peaks, whereas snowmelt normally results in events of very long duration with a high volume. Both event types have to be considered in the design of flood protection systems. Unfortunately, all these different event types are often included in annual maximum series (AMS) leading to inhomogeneous samples. Moreover, certain event types are underrepresented in the AMS. This is especially unsatisfactory if the most extreme events result from such an event type. Therefore, monthly maximum data are used to enlarge the information spectrum on the different event types. Of course, not all events can be included in the flood statistics because not every monthly maximum can be declared as a flood. To take this into account, a mixture Peak-over-threshold model is applied, with thresholds specifying flood events of several types that occur in a season of the year. This model is then extended to cover the seasonal type of the data. The applicability is shown in a German case study, where the impact of the single event types in different parts of a year is evaluated.     

Majority size and conformity behavior in charitable giving: Field evidence from a donation-based crowdfunding platform in Japan

A charitable donor typically imitates the majority contribution of other donors. This study examines the relationships between majority size and this so-called donor’s conformity behavior, by empirically investigating the impacts of multiple earlier donations on the donation of a subsequent donor to JapanGiving, a donation-based crowdfunding platform in Japan. This analysis is possible because the platform’s webpage displays the previous donation amounts in chronological order, thus allowing us to examine the modal amount of more recent donations. By using data on 9989 actual donations, our dynamic panel analysis suggests that when the number of most recent continuous modal donations increases, the likelihood that a subsequent donor matches the modal amount increases. This result supports the notion that a donor’s conformity behavior is more likely to occur when a greater proportion of other donors give a similar amount. Furthermore, the effects of continuous modal donations are strongly observed for low monetary ranges. We interpret that initiating further cooperation among a large number of less cooperative other donors would become harder, or individuals would obtain an excuse for less cooperation due to the others’ behaviors. Finally, we discuss how our findings connect economic studies of charity and social psychology studies of conformity and could help improve the effectiveness of fundraising by charities.     

Using logic model and visualization to conduct portfolio evaluation

Portfolio evaluation is the evaluation of multiple projects with a common purpose. While logic models have been used in many ways to support evaluation, and data visualization has been used widely to present and communicate evaluation findings, adopting logic models for portfolio evaluation and using data visualization to share findings simultaneously is surprisingly limited in the literature. With the data from a sample portfolio of 209 projects which aims to improve the system of early care and education (ECE), this study illustrated how to use logic model and data visualization techniques to conduct a portfolio evaluation by answering two evaluation questions: “To what extent are the elements of a logic model (strategies, sub-strategies, activities, outcomes, and impacts) reflected in the sample portfolio?” and “Which dominant paths through the logic model were illuminated by the data visualization technique?” For the first question, the visualization technique illuminated several dominant strategies, sub-strategies, activities, and outcomes. For the second question, our visualization techniques made it convenient to identify critical paths through the logic model. Implications for both program evaluation and program planning were discussed.